Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.
This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games but with the bonus of some friendly competition…
Throughout the tournament, we will have one of two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different subscriber each day and “Algo”, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the World Cup.
Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old boy called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).
Our guest subscriber today is Mike, from the U.S., who supports USMNT, Croatia, Barca and LA Galaxy. Good luck!
If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament,
What happened on Matchday 14?
Switzerland triumphed over Canada in the battle to finish top of Group B as second-half goals from Ruben Vargas and Johan Manzambi sealed a 2-1 victory.
Following a relatively cagey first half, the game burst into life when Vargas netted less than a minute after the break with a coolly taken near-post finish. Manzambi doubled the advantage but an innovative goal from Canada substitute Promise David, with his first touch after coming on, set up a grandstand finish. Canada piled on the pressure but could not find the equaliser.
In the other game in Group B, there was a fear that Qatar might be on the end of another big defeat when Edin Dzeko found himself one-on-one with goalkeeper Mahmud Abunada. Bosnia and Herzegovina were already leading 2-0 after 19-year-old Kerim Alajbegovic’s opener — with one of the goals of the tournament — and an Abunada own goal.
However, the 40-year-old hit the post and the momentum quickly shifted when, three minutes later, Hassan Al Haydos halved the deficit. The game remained in the balance until Ermin Mahmic restored Bosnia’s two-goal advantage with 10 minutes to go. Victory took them to four points, which should be enough for them to sneak through to the knockout stage as one of the eight qualifying third-placed teams.
Stanley’s hopes for a Qatar miracle were misguided, while Wilfred understandably went for a draw after watching these two teams attempt to play football in their first two group games. The rest of us all predicted a Bosnia win. It was a different story for the Switzerland and Canada match, as we all drew a blank. Some of us were hung up on Canada’s 6-0 victory over Qatar (Algo, Wilfred and Stanley) while some of others had been left unconvinced by the Swiss (our expert and subscriber Marcelo).
Promise David’s superb goal was not enough for Canada (Meng Yongmin/Getty Images)
If Scotland supporters were hoping their team had learnt their lesson after conceding 70 seconds into their game against Morocco, they were left disappointed. Rayan intercepted Scott McKenna’s attempted pass and the ball fell kindly to Vincius Junior, who skipped past goalkeeper Angus Gunn and finished into an empty net with just seven minutes played.
Brazil’s second was also self-inflicted from a Scotland perspective, as they failed to clear their lines and then Gunn misread Bruno Guimaraes’ cross, allowing Vinicius Jr to head in his second. Matheus Cunha made it 3-0, confirming Brazil as Group C winners and leaving Scotland’s campaign on the brink.
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Haiti’s pre-match analysis will surely have highlighted Morocco’s electric starts, which was why they decided to play them at their own game, as Yassine Bounou diverted the ball into his own net after 10 minutes. Morocco huffed and puffed and eventually found an equaliser through Achraf Hakimi after 38 minutes, before conceding almost immediately to a Wilson Isidor thunderbolt and then equalising again through Mr Reliable, Ismael Saibari, all in the space of seven minutes.
Haiti had been eliminated from the tournament before this match, but you never would have known. Their resistance was finally broken 12 minutes from time when Soufiane Rahimi’s deflected effort nestled in the top corner. Fellow substitute Gessime Yassine added a fourth to seal a 4-2 win.
It was a successful end to the group for the predictors, who all picked Brazil for top spot. Everyone except the maverick Stanley also backed Morocco as runners-up.
Vinicius Jr scored twice as Brazil left Scotland on the brink (Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
In Group A, Mexico had sealed first place, but finished the group phase in style with a 3-0 victory over Czech Republic. Despite only one of the sides needing a result, it was a performance that summed up the Czechs’ disappointing campaign as they were comfortably second best.
After a first half of few clear chances for either side, Mateo Chavez broke the deadlock 10 minutes after half-time following terrific work in the build-up from Luis Romo, and Julian Quinones doubled the advantage six minutes later after a defensive disaster. There was little response from the Czechs, with Mexico adding a third in added time through Alvaro Fidalgo. They also had time to bring on World Cup goalkeeping royalty Guillermo Ochoa, 40 and participating in his sixth World Cup, with 12 minutes to go.
South Korea headed into the final set of games in second, knowing that a point would be enough to secure automatic qualification and they started the better team against South Africa but did not take their chances, while star man Son Heung-min watched on from the bench.
You would have forgiven the South Africans for thinking their tournament was over after their opening-day horror show against Mexico, when they lost and had two players sent off, but coach Hugo Broos kept his side believing. Only a win would be enough to give them a chance of qualifying and Thapelo Maseko’s tidy finish just after the hour proved to be the crucial goal. They were smart without the ball and effective in possession to secure the country’s first qualification to the World Cup knockout stages.
There were only two correct predictions across the two Group A matches. Algo and Wilfred backed Mexico even though the game meant nothing to them and it paid off. South Korea were the heavy favourites to beat South Africa according to us, as all but Stanley — who went with a draw — predicted they would secure second place.
It was another positive day for Algo, who increased his advantage at the top of the table by one, so he now leads by four. It’s starting to get concerning for everyone below.
How do the predictions work?
It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome: a WIN for one of the two teams, or a DRAW.
We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) and a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’Ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.
So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard — and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilfred are beating us.
Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.
Good luck, and enjoy!
Why not try The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast projecting the likelihood that each team will progress through each stage of the tournament, along with a bracket projecting the most likely round of 32 matchups, current standings and a bunch of other neat forecasts and scenarios.
Predictions for Matchday 15
Curacao vs Ivory Coast, Group E, 4pm ET, 9pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. Curacao were resolute against Ecuador, but the Ivory Coast possess much more attacking firepower.
Watch Rating: 2/5. A good tie, but most “neutral” fans will have their eyes on the other game in Group E.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “After falling late to Germany, the Ivory Coast can no longer win the group. A draw will be enough to secure passage as the second-placed team, but they will surely want to pick up three points to carry the positive momentum they have built thus far to the knockouts.
“Expect another spirited performance from Curacao, but with a win needed to qualify for the knockouts, Ivory Coast should have too much quality as the game opens up.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: IVORY COAST WIN
Guest subscriber Mike: IVORY COAST WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: IVORY COAST WIN
Stanley the Dog: CURACAO WIN
Algo: IVORY COAST WIN
Ecuador vs Germany, Group E, 4pm ET, 9pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. Ecuador must win to have a chance of qualifying as one of the eight best third-placed teams, but Germany have the talent to exploit the gaps they will inevitably leave in pursuit of a goal.
Watch Rating: 5/5. Unless you’ve got a dog in the Curacao-Ivory Coast fight, all eyes will be justifiably on the action at MetLife Stadium.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “While Ecuador are an outstanding defensive team, they do not score many goals — a major issue in a game like this. The South Americans are yet to open their account in North America this summer, though they probably should have done so against Curacao, whose goalkeeper Eloy Room made an astounding 15 saves.
“To have any chance of progression into the knockouts, they must find their shooting boots here. As confirmed group winners already, Germany may rotate, but even a changed German side can hurt any opposition — particularly when gaps open up on the counter-attack.”
Julian Nagelsmann may rotate his Germany side (Tom Weller/picture alliance via Getty Images)
The Athletic Soccer Experts: GERMANY WIN
Guest subscriber Mike: DRAW
Six-year-old Wilfred: GERMANY WIN
Stanley the Dog: GERMANY WIN
Algo: GERMANY WIN
Japan vs Sweden, Group F, 7pm ET, 12am BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. A bore draw is enough for either side to secure progression into the knockout stages, but both will surely harbour ambitions of winning the group.
Watch Rating: 3/5. Potential for a very exciting game if both teams go all out to win. Equally, this could be the most boring and least consequential game of the tournament.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Sweden have among the best strike forces at this World Cup, as evidenced by their opening 5-1 win over Tunisia. They also have one of the leakiest back lines, at least among the European sides, as shown in the 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands in match two, and Japan, one of the most well-organised teams at the tournament, certainly have the capacity to exploit their leaky structure.
“As a match-up, this could be box-office. Let’s just hope both sides don’t settle for a draw to secure their spots in the round of 32 — an unfortunate consequence of the new 48-team format.”
Will Alexander Isak and co play their part in another high-scoring game? (Juancho Torres/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The Athletic Soccer Experts: DRAW
Guest subscriber Mike: JAPAN WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: DRAW
Stanley the Dog: SWEDEN WIN
Algo: JAPAN WIN
Netherlands vs Tunisia, Group F, 7pm ET, 12am BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. Tunisia are already eliminated, so the freedom of playing for pride could be what they need to spring a surprise — but we have seen little so far to suggest they can hurt the Netherlands.
Watch Rating: 2/5. The (admittedly, very slim) potential for a giant-killing means this game is worth keeping an eye on, but it should be a formality.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “We may see some rotation from the Dutch, who are already as good as through, but only a win (and equalling or bettering Japan’s potential margin of victory against Sweden) can secure top spot. Tunisia have offered little in the way of encouragement that they will be able to stop Ronald Koeman’s side from adding to their already-impressive tally of seven goals, so expect the Netherlands to add a few more to that number here.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: NETHERLANDS WIN
Guest subscriber Mike: NETHERLANDS WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: NETHERLANDS WIN
Stanley the Dog: TUNISIA WIN
Algo: NETHERLANDS WIN
Turkey vs USMNT, Group D, 10pm ET, 3am BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. Let’s not forget, already-eliminated Turkey are still very talented, and they will be keen not to leave North America empty-handed.
Watch Rating: 4/5. The USMNT have already won the group, so expect a fair amount of rotation here. If Mauricio Pochettino’s replacements are not set up to defend resolutely, this game could be end-to-end chaos.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “While the idea of nine points from nine and ‘building momentum’ sounds great to fans, Pochettino won’t be under any illusions: now the U.S. are qualified as group winners, all that matters is their first knockout game. Expect rotation and limited minutes for the returning Christian Pulisic to ensure he is fit and ready for that round of 32 tie on July 1.
Hopes are high for Mauricio Pochettino and the USMNT (Soobum Im/Getty Images)
“But if the depth players adopt the same forward-thinking approach as the starters, Turkey, who have the best two players from either squad in Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz, have the attacking potential to blow them away. Surely Turkey will finally make one of their (62 in two matches, up to now) shots count in Los Angeles?”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: TURKEY WIN
Guest subscriber Mike: USMNT WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: USMNT WIN
Stanley the Dog: DRAW
Algo: USMNT WIN
Paraguay vs Australia, Group D, 10pm ET, 3am BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. Like Japan-Sweden, a draw here will be enough for both nations, but Paraguay must win to avoid Germany in the round of 32.
Watch Rating: 3/5. The potential for both sides to settle for a draw means there are no guarantees this will be worth watching, but the teams’ competitive nature suggests they will be out to win.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “News has undoubtedly circulated in the Paraguay camp about the reality they face in their current position: a trip to Boston to face Germany in the first knockout round. And while you would expect any team, regardless of their circumstances, to be motivated to win every game at the World Cup, the prospect of facing the second-placed team from Group G, currently Iran, with a win makes for a much more encouraging potential progress to the round of 16. They will have to do it without Miguel Almiron, who is banned after becoming the first player to be sent off for covering his mouth when talking to an opponent.
Almiron is banned after his red card (Matthew Huang/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
“Australia were poor in their 2-0 defeat to the United States, lacking Nestory Irankunda’s pace on the counter-attack, which looked so threatening in their opening 2-0 win against Turkey. With a positive goal difference over Paraguay, Australia only have to draw to avoid Germany in the next round, but with Irankunda likely to return to the line-up, their ability to soak up pressure and strike in transition could work again in Santa Clara.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: DRAW
Guest subscriber Mike: DRAW
Six-year-old Wilfred: DRAW
Stanley the Dog: PARAGUAY WIN
Algo: PARAGUAY WIN