Spain turned up. Should they be favourites? Re-ranking the 48 World Cup teams after day 22

The Athletic has live coverage of Argentina vs Cape Verde in the Round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

There are now just three round-of-32 ties remaining, with the last 16 almost set following Thursday’s matches.

At 41, legendary goalscorer Cristiano Ronaldo finally got one in a World Cup knockout game as his Portugal team got the better of Luka Modric’s Croatia. It was an incredibly dramatic 2-1 victory, in which Ronaldo’s former Real Madrid team-mate Modric, 40, might have played his last international.

Switzerland and Johan Manzambi continued their impressive run in a 2-0 win over Algeria, while Spain eased past Austria 3-0 with their most convincing performance of the tournament. Will the European champions have what it takes?

Here’s how our rankings look after day 22. Watch out for Argentina and joint-top scorer Lionel Messi in action later today, when the holders play Cape Verde.

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1. France

FIFA ranking: 2

➡️ (arrow depicts movement from our previous ranking)

France’s performances have given every indication that they are on track to reach their third consecutive World Cup final.

As things stand, Kylian Mbappe could collect the Golden Boot (six goals), and Michael Olise could finish with the most assists (five and counting).

After a 3-0 win over Sweden, they are the highest-scoring team at the tournament. Expect that form in front of goal to continue against Paraguay in the last 16.

They remain top of our rankings — and The Athletic’s live projection tool forecasts a 28 per cent chance of them winning the World Cup.

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2. Argentina

FIFA ranking: 1

➡️

Three convincing wins in three Group J matches took the holders comfortably through to the knockout stages.

Entering the last 32, Lionel Messi is the tournament’s joint-top scorer with six goals and with similar personnel, this team has looked like the title winners of four years ago.

They won’t complain about their place in the bracket, taking on Cape Verde in the round of 32, followed by Australia or Egypt in the round of 16.

3. Spain

FIFA ranking: 3

⬆️ 1

If it feels like Spain and star player Lamine Yamal haven’t quite got into full swing yet, that’s probably because expectations around the Euro 2024 winners were so high.

They started with a frustrating 0-0 draw with Cape Verde but have now won three consecutive matches — and are yet to concede a goal. Thursday night’s 3-0 victory over Austria was their best display yet, as unsung hero Mikel Oyarzabal brought his tally to the tournament to four with a brace.

The 29-year-old Real Sociedad forward has 17 goals from his past 16 starts for Spain, who will be in Dallas for an enticing last-16 match-up with Portugal on Monday. Let’s see if Luis de la Fuente’s side can continue improving.

4. Brazil

FIFA ranking: 5

⬇️ 1

Brazil made light work of Scotland and Haiti, but there were concerns over their performance in the draw with Morocco, leading some to believe Japan could be a banana skin in the round of 32.

Carlo Ancelotti looked the calmest man in Houston, and it was his substitute, Gabriel Martinelli, who scored the added-time winner for Brazil. They matched Japan’s energy and had too much attacking impetus to be denied.

Brazil’s midfield, instead of being the team’s weakness, was a net positive as Casemiro found the equalising goal and Bruno Guimaraes set up Martinelli’s winner. Norway await in the next round.

5. England

FIFA ranking: 4

➡️

Since beating Croatia, England’s games have been tough to watch. Ghana, Panama and DR Congo have sought to frustrate them, and succeeded for long periods, but England’s round-of-32 turnaround win in the last 15 minutes shows they have found some solutions to break down resolute defences.

It was their first victory after conceding the opening goal in a World Cup knockout tie since the 1966 final, as Harry Kane’s double put him back into the Golden Boot race — he has five goals to his name — and saved England from a disastrous loss.

It doesn’t get any easier in the last 16. Now they must confront co-hosts Mexico at the Estadio Azteca.

6. Mexico

FIFA ranking: 9

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Mexico have qualified for the round of 16 with a perfect record and without conceding a goal, following three wins from three in the group stage and a 2-0 win over Ecuador in the last 32. It was their first knockout win in 40 years.

Julian Quinones and Raul Jimenez have proved to be dependable goal threats, with five combined, while their home support in Mexico City for the Ecuador game was incredible.

It should prove to be an intimidating atmosphere for England in the last 16.

7. Morocco

FIFA ranking: 6

➡️

Morocco’s round-of-32 victory against the Netherlands shows their run to the Qatar 2022 semi-finals was no fluke. Manager Mohamed Ouahbi has nurtured the next generation, winning the 2025 Under-20 World Cup, and they can now consistently compete with the heavy hitters. Take the group stage, where they looked like the better team in a draw against Brazil.

Issa Diop’s added-time equaliser showcased another strength of the team: the recruitment of dual nationals. Diop switched his allegiance from France earlier this year.

They will be confident they can reach the quarter-finals, playing hosts Canada in the last 16.

8. Norway

FIFA ranking: 23

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Into the last 16 Norway go, for only the third time in their history, for a mouthwatering tie with Brazil.

Norway’s defence stood tall against the Ivory Coast, dealing well with set-piece deliveries and crosses. Goalkeeper Orjan Nyland made some crucial saves, including tipping Amad’s late free kick over the bar.

Ivory Coast could not contain a Norway attack that scored eight goals in three games in the group stage.  It is electrifying in full flow, as seen by Antonio Nusa’s opener and Haaland’s fifth goal of the tournament. The team was well rested after a rotated line-up in their final group match against France, when progression was already ensured.

9. Portugal

FIFA ranking: 8

⬆️ 2

Despite having arguably the best midfield at the tournament, Portugal haven’t looked convincing and finished behind Colombia in Group K.

But against Croatia, Cristiano Ronaldo scored his first World Cup knockout goal with a penalty (and was later substituted) as Roberto Martinez’s side snatched a last-16 spot with a stoppage-time Goncalo Ramos header.

That winner came in the 94th minute, but this hugely dramatic game still found time to throw up a Croatian disallowed equaliser 11 minutes later.

Meeting Spain next, Portugal will have to find a way to limit the European champions, or they’re likely to be punished.

10. United States

FIFA ranking: 15

⬇️ 1

Mauricio Pochettino’s team continued their group stage form to join co-hosts Canada and Mexico in the last 16, easing beyond tricky opponents in Bosnia and Herzegovina despite being reduced to 10 men.

But they are set to be without Folarin Balogun in their next game after his red card — a critical blow when it comes to their goal threat as they take on Belgium in Seattle.

The U.S. are looking to reach the quarter-finals for just the third time, and to avenge a 5-2 friendly loss to Belgium in March. Should they achieve that, they will play one of Portugal or Spain in the last eight.

11. Colombia

FIFA ranking: 11

⬇️ 1

A team brimming with attacking talent and with willing runners aplenty, wins over Uzbekistan and DR Congo, though not emphatic, were enough to confirm progression for Colombia with a match to spare.

A draw in their final game meant they topped Group K over Portugal, a sign of their quality. What looked to be Davinson Sanchez’s big toe creeping into an offside position denied them a late win, too.

Winning the group means Ghana will be their opponents in the round of 32.

12. Switzerland

FIFA ranking: 16

⬆️ 2

Switzerland have suffered last-16 defeat in the past three World Cups, but victory over Algeria in the round of 32 at this expanded edition means they have finally won a knockout game.

It was their third victory in a row at this tournament, where 20-year-old midfielder Johan Manzambi has emerged as a breakout star. His mazy run set up Breel Embolo’s opener.

Can they go a step further? They will meet either Colombia or Ghana, and look capable of beating both.

13. Belgium

FIFA ranking: 10

⬇️ 1

Belgium were staring at elimination after going 2-0 down against Senegal in the round of 32. In a surprising move, head coach Rudi Garcia reacted by taking off Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku, but it proved effective as Belgium somehow revived with two goals in the last four minutes.

Youri Tielemans’ penalty in the second half of extra time was the latest goal scored at a World Cup, completing a remarkable comeback. The remnants of their golden generation still have life in them yet.

They face the U.S. next, whom they beat 5-2 in a friendly in March.

14. Canada

FIFA ranking: 32

⬆️ 1

The co-hosts’ coach Jesse Marsch described their next game — which they now know will be against Morocco in the round of 16 — as “a free hit” after Stephen Eustaquio’s 92nd-minute winner ensured Canada defeated South Africa in Los Angeles. That doesn’t feel like the most optimistic interpretation of their chances, but they will certainly start that game in Houston as the underdogs.

15. Egypt

FIFA ranking: 26

⬆️ 1

Egypt’s 1-1 draw with Iran in their final group match, after a win against New Zealand and draw with Belgium, meant they dropped to second in the table, behind Belgium.

It was not disastrous for their round-of-32 outlook — they will face Australia next. But it does mean they could meet Argentina in the last 16.

16. Ghana

FIFA ranking: 65

⬆️ 1

Ghana played the group stage smartly. Coach Carlos Queiroz adjusted his tactics against each team, winning the game they needed to against Panama and earning a draw against England with an impressive defensive display.

After a narrow defeat by Croatia, they slipped to third in Group L but were always going to progress, whatever the result in Philadelphia. They have shown they can be a versatile team and can stick to a game plan, which they will need to do against Colombia in the round of 32.

17. Paraguay

FIFA ranking: 37

⬆️ 1

Paraguay had a mixed group stage, including being dismantled 4-1 by the U.S.. But any embarrassment from that game is behind them now.

Paraguay did against Germany what all good underdogs do: defend well and score from a set piece. Well, the ball was recycled from a corner, and it was a great cross by Matias Galarza and header by Julio Enciso, so we’re counting it as a set piece anyway.

Goalkeeper Orlando Gill was a hero. He kept two clean sheets in the group, but his two penalty saves helped take Paraguay to the last 16, where they will face tournament favourites France.

18. Australia

FIFA ranking: 28

⬆️ 3

Progression as Group D runners-up marks a solid effort from Australia, and two clean sheets from three games helped them do it.

Despite disappointing against the United States, their highlight was the performance against Turkey, producing a 2-0 win with only 28 per cent possession in a breakout game for 20-year-old Watford forward Nestory Irankunda.

They will have to channel this solidarity and cutting edge in the knockout stages, coming up against Egypt.

19. Cape Verde

FIFA ranking: 64

⬆️ 3

Cape Verde reaching the knockouts on their World Cup debut is the biggest fairytale of the tournament to date.

After keeping out European champions Spain, earning goalkeeper Vozinha Instagram fame, and drawing 2-2 with Uruguay, they confirmed progression with a third point, against Saudi Arabia, to finish in second.

The reward is a round-of-32 tie against holders Argentina. They couldn’t do it again, could they? Whatever happens in the knockout stages, these players have inspired a generation by making history.

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The eliminated teams

20. Netherlands

FIFA ranking: 7

⬆️ 3

The Netherlands’ group stage instilled confidence in the team, including a 5-1 win over Sweden. Cody Gakpo, Brian Brobbey and Crysencio Summerville had all combined well in a dangerous-looking attack.

But after topping their group, they were unlucky to draw another top-10 ranked team in Morocco. Ronald Koeman changed the setup to play five defenders, and it worked well enough that Morocco needed a late equaliser. But could they have stuck to the same approach that brought group-stage success?

After missing three out of five penalties, they were defeated in the shootout. There will be disappointment exiting at this stage of the tournament, leading to Koeman’s resignation.

21. Germany

FIFA ranking: 12

⬆️ 3

Germany’s group-stage performances were very promising after two games, a thrashing of Curacao and a late win over the Ivory Coast, but there was cause for concern in their final group game against Ecuador, in which they lost 2-1 despite starting with something close to their strongest XI.

They might feel hard done by at losing to Paraguay in the last 32, as Jonathan Tah’s extra-time goal was ruled out for apparent blocking of the goalkeeper, but it shouldn’t have come down to this. Paraguay were beaten 4-1 by the U.S. earlier in the tournament.

This is just the latest in a string of early exits for Germany. At their previous two tournaments since winning the World Cup in 2014, they failed to make it out of the group stage. They are usually reliable from the penalty spot at least, but this marked their first shootout defeat in World Cup history. Julian Nagelsmann has since left as head coach.

22. Japan

FIFA ranking: 17

⬆️ 3

Japan had a likeable team who impressed in the group stages, playing an egoless, exciting brand of football. They were rated so highly that many thought they would trouble Brazil in the last 32, and they did, taking the lead in the match through midfielder Kaishu Sano.

Brazil matched their energy and had too much attacking talent to be denied, winning with an added-time goal. What could have been for Japan if they hadn’t suffered injuries before and throughout the tournament to Kaoru Mitoma, Takefusa Kubo and Wataru Endo.

23. Senegal

FIFA ranking: 18

⬆️ 3

Against Belgium, they were 2-0 up in the 86th minute and somehow ended up losing after Youri Tielemans’ winning penalty in extra time.

It was a heartbreaking way to exit the tournament, with some Senegal players moved to tears, coming only months after they were stripped of the AFCON title.

Despite the meltdown, they had shown high quality in the game, with Ismaila Sarr’s spectacular goal brought down on his chest and lashed into the back of the net. They proved a considerable test for Belgium and France, against whom they mustered a strong first-half performance in the group stage.

24. Ivory Coast

FIFA ranking: 30

⬆️ 3

Ivory Coast exited the World Cup having only lost games to Germany (group stage) and Norway (round of 32). They beat Ecuador and Curacao, showing them to be among the best of the rest, but still with work to do to catch the contending teams.

They brought the youngest squad to the tournament, so still have plenty of potential to get out of this group. Amad can go home knowing he had an impressive tournament, following his winner against Ecuador and stunning solo goal in the Norway game. Yan Diomande showed flashes of his brilliance that could earn him a big-money move this summer.

But none of their strikers found the net. This was one element of their downfall, with a reliance on Amad and Diomande to create and score.

25. Croatia

FIFA ranking: 13

⬇️ 12

After finishing as World Cup runners-up in 2018 and placing third in 2022, Croatia went out in the round of 32 following a late defeat by Portugal.

They finished second in Group L behind England, suffering a 4-2 loss to Thomas Tuchel’s side in their opener, but bounced back with wins against Panama and Ghana.

All attention turns to 40-year-old 2018 Ballon d’Or winner Modric, as the Croatian legend might have played his last international match. He will be irreplaceable.

26. Sweden

FIFA ranking: 36

⬆️ 2

It was only at the end of last year that Sweden finished bottom of their World Cup qualifying group behind Kosovo, Slovenia and Switzerland without winning a game.

The turnaround since under Graham Potter — beating Ukraine and Poland in the play-offs for a spot in the tournament, a 5-1 win over Tunisia in their opening game and a draw with Japan — is a cause for positivity.

With the quality of players they have, such as Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres and Anthony Elanga, they should be more consistent and competitive. But losing to France in the last 32 is no disgrace at all.

27. Ecuador

FIFA ranking: 24

⬆️ 2

Ecuador’s strength was their defensive resilience, but over four games they struggled to find the net, scoring only twice, including failing to break down Curacao.

Both of their goals came in a 2-1 win over Germany, their highlight of the tournament. But in the knockouts, they were unable to match Mexico’s ruthlessness.

Enner Valencia, 36, did not get going at the tournament, and the rest of their key players, Moises Caicedo, William Pacho and Piero Hincapie, are all defensive. Hincapie was dismissed in added time against Mexico for covering his mouth in a confrontation.

28. Austria

FIFA ranking: 22

⬇️ 8

After reaching the knockout stage by the skin of their teeth in a dramatic final group game against Algeria, Austria were well beaten by Spain in the round of 32.

Ralf Rangnick’s side did have a goal threat, scoring three times on two occasions in the group phase. But coming up against superior opposition (they also faced Argentina), they weren’t able to truly excel either defensively or offensively at their first World Cup since 1998.

29. Algeria

FIFA ranking: 29

⬇️ 10

Algeria were disappointing in their round-of-32 match against Switzerland, failing to create clear-cut chances.

On the plus side, Riyad Mahrez, 35, scored his first World Cup goals at this tournament, and players like 24-year-old Feyenoord winger Anis Hadj Moussa are coming through to succeed him.

However, their key players are not in their prime, and they looked to be behind other African nations such as Senegal, Ivory Coast and Morocco in quality.

30. DR Congo

➡️

FIFA ranking: 41

Competing at only their second World Cup, after their first as Zaire in 1974, DR Congo progressed to the knockouts for the first time as one of nine African nations to reach the last 32.

A draw with Portugal and a win over Uzbekistan in Group K secured their place as a best third-place team.

Against England in the last 32, they started quickly, taking the lead through Brian Cipenga. Goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi looked destined to join Vozinha and Eloy Room but was eventually breached. Even in defeat, DR Congo left a hugely favourable impression on the finals.

31. Bosnia and Herzegovina

FIFA ranking: 61

➡️

The win over Qatar and draw with Canada took Bosnia to their first knockout game as an independent nation (they were formerly part of Yugoslavia), marking a good achievement.

Despite losing to the U.S., they will forever be remembered for beating Italy in UEFA’s World Cup qualification play-offs.

32. South Africa

FIFA ranking: 54

➡️

Farewell then, to South Africa. After their opening-game defeat by Mexico, it felt like even the most optimistic of souls wouldn’t have thought they’d make it out of the group. Given this was the first time they had qualified for the knockout phase of the World Cup, they will probably view this World Cup as a success.

But with any defeat in stoppage time comes a sense of what could have been. They were so close to taking the co-hosts into extra time and potentially penalties, where anything could have happened. Hugo Broos departs as the oldest man to ever coach a team in the knockout stages.

33. Iran

FIFA ranking: 21

➡️

Iran were left to rue what could have been in their last match against Egypt, when they had an added-time winner disallowed for a marginal offside before hitting the crossbar even later on.

A win would have guaranteed their progress to the knockout stages, but instead they were forced to wait for results from elsewhere and hope their three points and zero goal difference would be enough to see them through as one of the eight best third-placed sides. When Algeria scored what looked like an added-time winner in their final group match, Iran were going through, but Austria’s equaliser in the last moments of the game effectively knocked them out.

Despite being in military conflict with one of the co-hosts, the U.S., in an unprecedented set of circumstances and having to fly in and out of the U.S. just hours before and after their matches, a decision that was eventually scrapped, Iran performed well in this tournament. To be eliminated without losing a match will undoubtedly sting.

34. New Zealand

FIFA ranking: 86

➡️

We will remember New Zealand at this World Cup for breakout star Elijah Just, who scored three goals, and for those Chris Wood touches in the first game against Iran.

After that first game, they were overwhelmed by the quality of both Egypt and Belgium, losing comprehensively to both.

But they played a part in their first World Cup since 2010, including their own viral sensation in Tim Payne. Their future goal will remain the same: reaching the knockouts for the first time.

35. Turkey

FIFA ranking: 27

➡️

Possibly the most underwhelming team compared to their pre-tournament expectations at this year’s World Cup. Most would have predicted Turkey to progress ahead of Australia and Paraguay. Instead, they were eliminated with a game to spare.

They saved face in their final match, scoring their first goals and earning a 3-2 win against the U.S., but it was too late to matter.

36. Uruguay

FIFA ranking: 19

➡️

Uruguay left themselves needing a result in the final group game against Spain after taking only two points from Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde.

They never really looked like winning. They clearly have quality, finishing level on points with Brazil and Colombia in qualifying, but didn’t show it at this World Cup.

With a goalkeeping howler and a red card, Marcelo Bielsa’s side self-imploded at the end of a bitterly disappointing tournament.

37. Saudi Arabia

FIFA ranking: 58

➡️

A regression from tournament appearances in 2018 and 2022, when they were able to win a group game. They have still only reached the knockout stage on one occasion, in 1994.

But Saudi Arabia were hard to beat, earning two draws, and you would expect them to benefit from the development of their domestic league in future tournaments — including the one they are hosting in 2034.

38. South Korea

FIFA ranking: 31

➡️

After a positive start, beating the Czech Republic 2-1, they limply lost to Mexico and South Africa without scoring. This put them on three points and minus one goal difference, not enough to progress as one of the best third-placed teams and a regression from the 2022 tournament, when they progressed ahead of Uruguay and Ghana.

Captain Son Heung-min struggled to impact games and was dropped from the starting line-up in the final game.

39. Scotland

FIFA ranking: 42

➡️

Scotland’s elimination was eventually confirmed by results elsewhere, leading manager Steve Clarke to resign after seven years in charge.

Their three points, earned against Haiti, were not enough to go through as one of the best third-placed teams, due to their minus-three goal difference after a comprehensive 3-0 loss to Brazil in their final game.

After a 28-year wait for a World Cup appearance, they will be sorely disappointed to fall at the first hurdle.

40. Curacao

FIFA ranking: 82

➡️

The smallest nation to compete at a World Cup came away with a point, earned against Ecuador thanks to the heroics of goalkeeper Eloy Room, and their first goal at the tournament scored by Livano Comenencia, but were eliminated following defeat by the Ivory Coast.

After losing 7-1 to Germany in their first game, they recovered to give a good account of themselves overall.

41. Czech Republic

FIFA ranking: 48

➡️

The Czech Republic go home disappointed, having left themselves needing a win against Mexico in their final group game, only to lose 3-0.

Considering the fight they showed to beat the Republic of Ireland and Denmark in the European qualification play-offs to get here, they underwhelmed at this World Cup, earning just one point against South Africa and finishing bottom of Group A.

42. Uzbekistan

FIFA ranking: 60

➡️

Uzbekistan came away from their debut World Cup pointless, but showed some fight against Colombia and took the lead against DR Congo.

They got to face Cristiano Ronaldo in what is surely his last World Cup, but were on the wrong side of history as he scored at his sixth edition in Portugal’s 5-0 win.

Despite having legendary centre-back Fabio Cannavaro in the dugout, they conceded 11 goals in three games — not good enough to frustrate teams or earn results.

43. Panama

FIFA ranking: 44

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Panama were already eliminated before facing England, and a 2-0 loss means they return home being the only team at this year’s World Cup not to score.

There are positives, as they were hard to beat, losing by just a one-goal margin against Ghana and Croatia. This betters their World Cup debut in 2018, when they conceded 11 goals. If they can add a little more attacking threat (and they did show some, especially against England), there are some solid foundations to build on.

44. Jordan

FIFA ranking: 73

➡️

Jordan bowed out at their debut tournament with a game to spare after losses to Austria and Algeria.

They scored in all three games, including their last against Argentina, but didn’t do enough to stifle their opponents in the way some of the other debutant nations were able to, mainly thanks to some standout goalkeeping performances.

45. Haiti

FIFA ranking: 88

➡️

They played with freedom against Morocco, knowing they were already eliminated, and even though they were beaten 4-2, Sunderland’s Wilson Isidor scored a memorable goal.

After appearing in their first World Cup since 1974, they will hope to be luckier in their draw next time — and avoid two top-10-ranked nations, as they had here with Morocco and Brazil.

46. Qatar

FIFA ranking: 59

➡️

Qatar were eliminated after a 3-1 loss to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Having earned a point against Switzerland in their opening match, manager Julen Lopetegui couldn’t prevent them from one of the worst performances of the group stage with a 6-0 loss and two red cards against Canada in their second outing. They failed to build on that opening point.

47. Iraq

FIFA ranking: 63

➡️

Iraq didn’t get near their group opponents, who in fairness boasted two of the best forwards in the world in Haaland and Mbappe.

Their highlight was captain Aymen Hussein’s goal against Norway, in the aftermath of Hussein being held for several hours for questioning by U.S. immigration officials upon entering the country.

If they had beaten Senegal, they would still have had a chance of qualification, but they conceded after four minutes and were reduced to 10 players shortly after. They ended their first World Cup campaign since 1986 with a 5-0 defeat.

48. Tunisia

FIFA ranking: 57

➡️

It was a miserable tournament for Tunisia. After a 5-1 opening loss to Sweden, they sacked Sabri Lamouchi, but his replacement, Herve Renard, could not prevent further heavy defeats by Japan and the Netherlands.

They finished with a minus-10 goal difference — no team had a worse losing margin.