Curacao… up? Re-ranking the 48 World Cup teams after day four of the tournament

When does a 7-1 victory in the World Cup not lead to gushing acclaim? In the notoriously tough World Cup rankings from The Athletic, of course.

Germany, Sweden and Ivory Coast were winners on day four but where do they find themselves in our list in today’s update? And how far have Curacao dropped after their thrashing? What, they’ve gone up? Look, just read the reasoning and @ us in the comments.

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1. Spain

FIFA ranking: 2

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When it comes to most people’s favourites to lift the World Cup, it’s a toss of a coin to separate Spain and France, who look to have the strongest XIs on paper. Spain’s only issue appears to be over the fitness of Lamine Yamal, but it seems as though he’ll feature during the group stage and perhaps even in their opening match against Cape Verde later today. In theory, the Euro 2024 winners, with their array of young, attacking talent, may even have room for improvement from two years ago.

2. France

FIFA ranking: 3

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Think of it this way: at least one of Kylian Mbappe, Desire Doue, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise and Rayan Cherki won’t be in France’s first-choice team. The depth of their attacking options is incredible, and while other elements of their team don’t look quite as strong, they have so many options going forwards that they will be difficult to stop. A warm-up defeat by the Ivory Coast was a slight concern but, we’ll say again, just look at that forward line.

3. Argentina

FIFA ranking: 1

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The reigning champions from Qatar in 2022, who also won back-to-back Copa America titles in 2021 and 2024, have the same manager in Lionel Scaloni and the same GOAT in Lionel Messi, albeit the latter is getting on a bit and will turn 39 during the tournament. Argentina have the quality and the experience to retain their crown, but do they have the desire?

4. England

FIFA ranking: 4

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Having the luxury of being able to leave the likes of Phil Foden and Cole Palmer out of his squad underlines just how much talent Thomas Tuchel has at his disposal, while the form of strikers Harry Kane (successive hat-tricks to end the season) and Ollie Watkins (six goals in five club games) also bodes well. As ever with England, their success or otherwise will be defined by whether they can carry their individual club form onto the international stage. They looked impressive in their final tournament warm-up game, a 3-0 win against Costa Rica.

5. Germany

FIFA ranking: 10

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For a nation like Germany, it’s either win the World Cup or nothing, so in terms of their prospects of achieving their goal in 2026, we didn’t glean much from a 7-1 win over minnows Curacao. However, we were offered evidence that Germany’s imaginative attack will be one of the best to watch at the tournament, but their defending might leave much to be desired.

6. Brazil

FIFA ranking: 6

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Brazil didn’t set the world alight in their opening match.

Carlo Ancelotti made two changes at half-time, an indication they aren’t fine-tuned as yet. Those changes came at full-back and in midfield, two areas of concern for this Brazil team that were not dispelled by the 1-1 draw against Morocco.

They can still go on to top Group C, with games against Haiti and Scotland to follow. A silver lining was Vinicius Jr’s emphatic finish, an encouraging start to the tournament for one of their key players.

7. Netherlands

FIFA ranking: 8

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A decent showing against Japan which showcased their physicality, strength from attacking set pieces and occasional brilliance from forward players, but also highlighted weaknesses in the depth of their squad (their levels noticeably dropped after five substitutions were made). Ronald Koeman’s decision to throw on an extra defender for the last 10 minutes didn’t pay off when they succumbed to a late equaliser.

8. Portugal

FIFA ranking: 5

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As ever, the conversation around Portugal will be focused on you know who: Cristiano Ronaldo should in theory be suspended for the first two games of the tournament, but his magical reprieve means he will almost certainly start. Will he finally make a mark on a World Cup, having never before scored a knockout goal at one? Having Joao Neves, Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva probably gives Portugal the best midfield in the tournament.

9. Morocco

FIFA ranking: 7

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Morocco’s draw with Brazil proved they remain one of football’s heavyweights after their semi-final run at Qatar 2022. They looked comfortable going toe-to-toe with the World Cup’s most successful nation.

The team has new talent since their historic run four years ago. Eighteen-year-old Ayyoub Bouaddi, who committed to Morocco after appearing for the French under-21s, had a standout game in midfield. Bouaddi demanded the ball and controlled the tempo.

10. Colombia

FIFA ranking: 14

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The 2024 Copa America finalists finished third in South American qualifying but go to the tournament with high hopes, led by talisman James Rodriguez in what will probably be his last World Cup. Ahead of him, Jhon Arias and Richard Rios are key players but in Luis Diaz, one-third of the most prolific attack in Europe at Bayern Munich, Colombia possess someone who could be one of the tournament’s standout players. They won’t be dull.

11. Croatia

FIFA ranking: 11

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If this ranking was being compiled a month or so ago, Croatia might have slipped down a few places due to injury concerns around a couple of key players. But both Luka Modric and Josko Gvardiol appear to be fit and ready to go, so it’s difficult to ignore their recent tournament pedigree, with the experienced core of their team supplemented by a couple of very promising youngsters.

12. Uruguay

FIFA ranking: 16

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Well, they haven’t won in four matches, a run that included a 5-1 trouncing by the United States last November (admittedly without key players) and, while a 1-1 draw against England at Wembley in March was notable, a 0-0 draw against Algeria a few days later was less welcome. They have no form, and no Luis Suarez (he was snubbed despite saying he would come out of international retirement), but they do have Marcelo Bielsa and Federico Valverde. Swings and roundabouts.

13. Mexico

FIFA ranking: 13

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An accomplished, drama-free opening victory against South Africa was pretty much everything Mexico hoped it would be. The excellent Julian Quinones’ early goal settled any nerves and then came the emotive, heart-rending second from talisman Raul Jimenez in the second half. With potentially more to come from Edson Alvarez (left out as he builds up his fitness) and wonderkid Gilberto Mora, Mexico may feel the benefit of home advantage more than anyone, what with that unbelievably passionate Azteca crowd.

14. South Korea

FIFA ranking: 22

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Well, they certainly had a wobble against the Czech Republic, going 1-0 down in the second half and relying on goalkeeper Kim Seung-gyu to make a couple of excellent saves, but South Korea’s comeback victory on the opening day gives them one foot in the knockout stages already. They were good value for the win and if Son Heung-min had his shooting boots on, it could have been a straightforward evening.

15. Senegal

FIFA ranking: 15

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Senegal have decent World Cup pedigree, having twice reached the knockout stage (2002 quarter-finalists, round of 16 in 2022) and you would expect the same again this time from a team familiar to Premier League viewers (including Sadio Mane, Nicolas Jackson, Iliman Ndiaye, Pape Matar Sarr and Ismaila Sarr). They also won the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) fairly recently. Or did they? Anyway, they’ve got a good team and could put a few noses out of joint.

16. Egypt

FIFA ranking: 29

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It’s still all about Mohamed Salah. This is probably his last chance to fix Egypt’s weirdly terrible World Cup record (they’ve only previously qualified once this century, in which time they’ve won AFCON three times), and at least he’s going into this one in decent physical shape, having been unfit in 2018. He may have a more convincing supporting cast than in 2018, too. We should find out what kind of tournament they will have when they take on Belgium on Monday.

17. Belgium

FIFA ranking: 9

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It was quite startling when, while naming the Belgian squad for this tournament, Rudi Garcia admitted that Romelu Lukaku was “out of shape”, but picked him anyway. Fitness seems to be the big question mark over this team, with Kevin De Bruyne also having spent much of the club season out injured, which is why they are a bit lower down out rankings than you might think.

18. United States

FIFA ranking: 17

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The USMNT’s stunning 4-1 victory over Paraguay suggested their ceiling may be higher than many of us thought.

Most encouragingly, though, Folarin Balogun looked every inch the top-class No 9 that the U.S. have been searching for (for generations), scoring twice — including a ridiculously good curled finish on his weaker left foot into the top corner for his second.

What’s more, long-vaunted talent Gio Reyna demonstrated his gifts on the world stage with a beautiful trivela strike in second-half stoppage time. Christian Pulisic was taken off at half-time over a potential calf problem with the U.S. 3-0 up, though both he manager Mauricio Pochettino suggested it was precautionary.

19. Ivory Coast

FIFA ranking: 33

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Got their World Cup off to a dream start when Manchester United’s Amad Diallo scored a late winner against Ecuador. Having never progressed from the group stage of a World Cup, Ivory Coast now have a 95 per cent chance of getting to the knockout stage, needing to beat Curacao to guarantee progression to the last-32 stage.

20. Japan

FIFA ranking: 18

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Probably underperformed against the Netherlands and yet still claimed a notable result. 

Having beaten Brazil and England in the past year, they are clearly a very dangerous, technically gifted and compact team, but injuries to key players Kaoru Mitoma, Takumi Minamino and Wataru Endo lessen their chances of doing something special in the coming weeks. A convincing victory against Tunisia next time out would really get their tournament going.

21. Sweden

FIFA ranking: 38

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Blimey. We didn’t quite know what to expect from Sweden, who lost twice to Kosovo during qualification but clearly have a very talented side… well, judging by their clinical 5-1 thrashing of Tunisia (13 shots, 1.37xG, five goals), Graham Potter has got the team working well together, especially the front two of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres. A dark horse?

22. Norway

FIFA ranking: 31

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This tournament’s most noted ‘dark horse’, Norway won all eight of their qualification games and come into the tournament with a battery of attacking options, with Jorgen Strand Larsen and Alexander Sorloth providing back-up to Erling Haaland. One small question mark might be the form of captain Martin Odegaard, who has endured a tricky season for Arsenal, although some promising performances at the end of the campaign might give them hope.

23. Australia

FIFA ranking: 27

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Australia only managed 28 per cent possession against Turkey, but that was all they needed for a 2-0 win.

Pragmatic coach Tony Popovic has made them hard to break down, and this is a side that could exceed expectations. While Turkey have star names in attack, it was Australia’s 20-year-old Nestory Irankunda who produced the game’s magic moment for the opening goal.

24. Switzerland

FIFA ranking: 19

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Switzerland’s casual display against Qatar cost them a winning start as they dominated only to concede a late equaliser.

Group B remains wide open after Canada and Bosnia & Herzegovina also drew 1-1. But Qatar is considered the best opportunity to secure three points, and the Swiss result could look worse in retrospect if Qatar are beaten in their other fixtures.

It looked like a comfortable game for Switzerland, who enjoyed 68 per cent possession and accumulated an xG of 3.2, but expectations for their team have to decrease after they could not win a game in which they were heavy favourites.

25. Ecuador

FIFA ranking: 24

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Their fans created a sea of yellow in Philadelphia but the result was an almighty damp squib, with a 1-0 defeat by Ivory Coast bringing an unbeaten run which lasted 19 matches and almost two years to an abrupt end. They were incredibly unlucky in hitting the woodwork three times but now may require a draw against Germany if they’re to get out of the group.

26. Algeria

FIFA ranking: 28

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Algeria marched through qualifying without ever really being spectacular. Guided from the dugout by former Switzerland coach Vladimir Petkovic, on the pitch, former Manchester City winger Riyad Mahrez is still their leader, but it probably won’t be long before he passes the baton to 25-year-old Mohamed Amoura or another young forward. You would be surprised if they don’t make it out of their group — although Austria and Jordan will be no joke — but much more than that might be a stretch.

27. Ghana

FIFA ranking: 73

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Ghana sacked manager Otto Addo in March, which doesn’t scream ‘steady ship’, plus the absence of Mohamed Kudus will be quite a blow. Plenty of attacking hopes will rest on the shoulders of Antoine Semenyo, and how quickly Addo’s replacement Carlos Queiroz will be able to get the team pointing in the right direction.

28. Austria

FIFA ranking: 25

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Ralf Rangnick’s men briefly shone at Euro 2024 and have a fun, attack-minded team featuring the likes of Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer. It’s their first World Cup since 1998, but the fact their main striker will probably be the 37-year-old Marko Arnautovic (playing these days in Serbia for Crvena Zvezda) is a concern. Losing gifted attacking midfielder Christoph Baumgartner to injury on the eve of the tournament was a huge blow and knocks them down a couple of places.

29. Canada

FIFA ranking: 30

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Canada should still have enough to go through, and will no doubt be targeting the game against Qatar to pick up a first World Cup win in their history, but they were disappointing in front of a home crowd in Toronto on Friday.

Star forward and Canada’s all-time leading goalscorer Jonathan David was utterly ineffective before he was substituted by head coach Jesse Marsch just after the hour mark, leaving questions about whether he can find his best form at the World Cup after a difficult debut club season at Juventus.

In the end it was Ontario-born Cyle Larin, who may have expected to start after ending the club season strongly with Southampton in the English Championship, who saved their peameal bacon with a deflected shot that sent his hometown crowd wild and secured an important 1-1 draw.

30. Turkey

FIFA ranking: 23

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Dubbed one of the tournament’s dark horses, Turkey were shocked in their opening game. After losing to Australia, if they progress from Group D, it now looks likely to be in third place unless they trouble the United States. This would mean a tougher knockout draw.

This team does have quality, creating nice moments with their 72 per cent possession, but they will need their key players Baris Alper Yilmaz and Arda Guler to deliver some much-needed end product.

31. Scotland

FIFA ranking: 41

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Scotland now lead Group C, which contains two top-10 ranked FIFA teams — Brazil and Morocco — after beating Haiti. Not bad going.

Haiti were able to trouble Scotland at times, but John McGinn provided a first World Cup goal since 1998 and a 1-0 win, their first at the finals since 1990, which moves them a step towards progression to the knockout stage.

32. Iran

FIFA ranking: 20

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It will be impossible for them to have anything close to a ‘normal’ tournament, given they’re being asked to play a World Cup in a country that their own is literally at war with. Plus the squad is old, the manager seems pretty unpopular and star forward Sardar Azmoun has been left out for non-football reasons, despite one of Iran’s vice-presidents, Abdolkarim Hosseinzadeh, calling for the 31-year-old’s ​return.

33. Panama

FIFA ranking: 34

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Maybe it doesn’t quite qualify as a ‘group of death’, but Panama being drawn against England, Ghana and Croatia isn’t going to help their prospects. With a kinder draw, it’s possible they might have been able to get through to the knockouts as one of the best third-placed teams, but that’s a long shot at best.

34. Paraguay

FIFA ranking: 40

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Their opening match against the U.S. made for a very disappointing return to the World Cup after a 16-year wait. Paraguay were played off the park, seemingly lacking the organisation and structure that propelled them to a sixth-placed finish in South American qualifying, where they ended level on points with Brazil and beat reigning continental and world champions Argentina.

Playing against the hosts is never easy, but now their chances of qualification for the knockout stages is in peril.

35. Qatar

FIFA ranking: 56

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A draw against Switzerland, many people’s predicted group winners, shifted them up the rankings from where we had them at the start of the tournament. Admittedly, it was a result born of Swiss complacency as much as Qatar’s courage, but a first World Cup point is worthy of significant movement.

They showed more in their first game than they did during their three as hosts in 2022, when they conceded seven goals and scored just once.

36. Bosnia and Herzegovina

FIFA ranking: 64

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Bosnia and Herzegovina can hold their heads high after a spirited and competitive return to football’s grandest stage, particularly against a host nation in Canada with a 1-1 draw. They had to withstand a fair bit of pressure in the second half as Canada grew into the game, but as anyone who followed their run through the qualifying stages, beating Italy in a play-off to book their spot this summer, Bosnia aren’t the types to crumble. Canada eventually got their goal, but only after a stroke of luck due to a pretty hefty deflection.

Edin Dzeko played no part as he is still recovering from a shoulder injury that has sidelined him since the March internationals. Having their star striker back, dubbed the Bosnian diamond, would significantly boost their chances of progression.

37. Saudi Arabia

FIFA ranking: 60

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Nothing says “we’re prepared” like sacking your manager 59 days before your tournament opener. Herve Renard was set to take charge of Saudi Arabia at a World Cup for the third time (he oversaw that win over Argentina four years ago) but, despite getting the team over the line during qualification (having taken over from Roberto Mancini), Renard has been replaced with Georgios Donis, a former Greece international who had been coaching in the Saudi Pro League. Quite what this all means for Saudi Arabia’s prospects remains unclear.

38. Czech Republic

FIFA ranking: 43

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Lost their opening match against South Korea but their Group A prospects look stronger than they might have done because of the ineptitude of South Africa. Captain Ladislav Krejci’s header from Vladimir Coufal’s long throw briefly had them in the lead against the Koreans and, were it not for a couple of spurned late chances, they may have got a decent opening result. Defeat was a serious blow, but they’re favourites to beat South Africa in their next match on Thursday, which could be enough to sneak them through in third place.

39. New Zealand

FIFA ranking: 85

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New Zealand were famously the only undefeated team at their last World Cup, in 2010, but they go to this one looking for their first victory. They didn’t exactly face great competition in qualifying, but they are in a group with a couple of potentially vulnerable teams in Iran and Egypt, so a win is possible. The bad news is they were dire in a 4-0 defeat by Haiti at the start of June.

40. Uzbekistan

FIFA ranking: 50

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Winning a friendly FIFA Series tournament in March may not have meant a huge amount on paper, given the opponents were Gabon and Venezuela, but it kept Uzbekistan’s momentum going ahead of the country’s first World Cup appearance. Their prospects of escaping Group K (which also contains Portugal, Colombia and DR Congo) may rest on striker and captain Eldor Shomurodov continuing his excellent club form with Istanbul Basaksehir, where he shared the Turkish Super Lig golden boot having scored 22 goals, making it the most prolific season of his career. In a warm-up against the Netherlands, they only lost to a 98th-minute goal.

41. Tunisia

FIFA ranking: 45

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Didn’t concede a single goal in their 10 qualifiers but were trounced 5-1 by Sweden in their opening match, in what was supposed to be their least difficult game in Group F. Head coach Sabri Lamouchi’s decision to cast aside several experienced players amid a raft of changes since taking over in January doesn’t look to have paid off.

42. South Africa

FIFA ranking: 61

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Two red cards really did not help but South Africa were comfortably second-best with 11 men against Mexico in the opening game of the tournament, with coach Hugo Broos’ decision to deploy a new five-at-the-back formation not paying off at all. They were occasionally calamitous at playing it out from the back and never looked like scoring. Can they fix that, with two suspended players, against the Czech Republic on Thursday? In their first World Cup appearance since hosting the tournament in 2010, it was a shame to see South Africa barely show any adventure or intent, which will dismay their fans back home.

43. Jordan

FIFA ranking: 63

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Injuries have troubled the Jordan squad going into their first World Cup, but perhaps their best hope comes from the collective spirit: the country’s proximity to conflict in neighbouring countries has meant that these last few years have been pretty desperate, so this tournament will mean more to them than most.

44. Curacao

FIFA ranking: 82

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Livano Comenencia produced one of the best moments of the tournament so far, firing the smallest World Cup nation ever level for 17 minutes against four-time winners Germany and who knows what else they would have done without that pesky hydration break. They managed eight shots and, despite the scoreline, didn’t embarrass themselves. Having caused the mighty Germany problems, they deserve to move up a place. Will fancy their chances of more shock moments against Ecuador and Ivory Coast.

45. DR Congo

FIFA ranking: 46

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The casual fan would be forgiven for not knowing a huge amount about the DR Congo side, but they do actually have half a sniff of progressing, given they’re in a group with first-timers Uzbekistan: beat them in the final group game and they might go through as one of the best third-place teams. What an achievement that would be.

46. Cape Verde

FIFA ranking: 67

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The collection of 10 small islands making the World Cup for the first time was one of last year’s great stories, but reality could hit pretty hard as they taken on Spain on Monday in their opening match. Their hope will be to stay vaguely competitive against Spain and Uruguay, and hope to pull off something special against Saudi Arabia.

47. Iraq

FIFA ranking: 57

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Iraq have been on quite the journey just to be at the World Cup, with the situation in the Middle East off the pitch, and a dramatic intercontinental play-off victory over Bolivia on it. Former Australia coach Graham Arnold couldn’t have a tougher task against France, Norway and Senegal.

48. Haiti

FIFA ranking: 83

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Haiti’s best chance of a result in Group C was likely going to be against Scotland, with their other opponents Morocco and Brazil.

As the lowest-ranking team, they produced a spirited performance that was more encouraging than the manner in which other teams lost. But succumbing 1-0 does not justify a move up our rankings, and they will need to keep a competitive spirit in their tough remaining group games.